Globally, classrooms are crowded and teachers are overburdened, and the answer lies not only in education reform but also in fiscal policy.
Our new research explores how government revenue and governance quality directly shape the school-age population/teacher ratio in every country.
The findings demonstrate a clear and compelling trend: higher public revenues are linked to better teacher coverage, especially when governance systems are stronger.
This model offers insights for every country, helping policymakers estimate how fiscal reforms could accelerate progress towards SDG 4 targets on inclusive, quality education.
Using the new model and online visualisation tool, we can see that if the Government of Angola had an additional $1billion in government revenue between 2021 and 2030, there would be an additional 3000 primary school teachers in the country.
This econometric model provides a globally applicable tool that allows the translation of the impact of increased fiscal space into concrete implications for class sizes and, therefore, children’s learning outcomes. To do this, we constructed a novel global dataset measuring the School-Age Population to Teacher Ratio by combining UNESCO data on school-age populations and teacher counts across primary, lower secondary, and upper secondary levels. The dataset offers annual, country-level coverage, enabling comparative analysis across education systems over time.
In summary, increased government revenue and stronger governance are consistently associated with an expanded teacher’s workforce.
What This Means for Policymakers and Advocates
By quantifying the connection between government revenue, governance, and teacher numbers, the updated GRADE model provides actionable evidence for teachers unions, education ministries and advocates to argue for fairer and more sustainable financing for education. Finance ministries can use data backed evidence to push back against austerity measures which reduce the number of teachers and therefore the right to an education.
Explore
- To use the GRADE model, see the videos and the user guide.
- Connect: Follow GRADE on LinkedIn
Looking forward to working with partners across the education and fiscal justice movements to apply these findings in national and global advocacy.