Mali, home to the richest man who ever lived – Mansa Musa I, king of the Mali Empire in the 1300s – has been a leading gold producer for over 1000 years. Today, it is the third-largest African gold producer. However, during French colonial occupation several centuries later and since Mali’s independence, gold, which accounted for nearly 80% of exports and 22% of government revenue in 2021, has not always been seen as delivering local economic transformation.
Negotiating new terms to produce gold
A coup in 2021 was followed by an internal mining audit, catalysing the transitional government to adopt a new mining code. The new law removed certain tax exemptions and strengthened local participation.
According to Economy Minister Alousseni Sanou and Mines Minister Amadou Keita, the newly approved code is expected to generate an additional $803 million annually for the state and boost the mining sector’s share of GDP from the current 9% to as much as 20%.
Resolving disputes
The Malian government demanded that the new mining code be applied to existing projects. This would override stability clauses in mining agreements, which, upon signing, effectively ‘froze’ the tax provisions governing mines. Stability clauses are not considered best practice today, and mean that if a government chooses to change the law, the stability clause would prevent the government from applying the new laws to the mining company, or risk investor-state arbitration.
Negotiations began with several existing foreign gold mining companies, including the Australian company Resolute Mining Ltd., UK-based Hummingbird Resources, and Canadian Barrick Mining. A 2025 report by the South Centre shows that the Government of Mali negotiated with the largest mining companies to settle issues raised in the mining audit, which secured the nation US$794 million.
Gold revenue for development
Using the Government Revenue and Development Estimations (GRADE) model (Version 3.20.1), we modelled how an increase in revenue equivalent to the projected annual increase as a result of the new mining code might realistically impact Mali’s development progress.
With the projected additional annual increase in revenue of US$803 billion from 2023, when the mining code was introduced, to 2030, our modelling shows that nearly 90,000 additional children will attend school, and 52,000 under-fives will no longer experience stunting. The Government of Mali could finance additional hospital beds (436) and nurses (910). As a result, over 2,700 children under the age of five will celebrate their fifth birthday, and just over 200 maternal deaths will be prevented. (Figure 1).
Note: $803 is deflated to $639.13 million in constant 2015 USD as required by the model. The GRADE simulations assume that expenditures will continue to be allocated as in past decades. If a government focuses more on social outcomes, the GRADE estimates can be considered a lower bound on what might happen.